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Bullish Confluence Signal: INACTIVE 📊

Signal Strength
0/100
IV Percentile
20.8%
Put/Call Ratio Percentile
67.7%
Volume Percentile
32.0%
Bitcoin Price
$104,594
Last Updated
Jun 17, 2025

Historical Signal Performance

Total Signals
15
90-Day Avg Return
27.4%
180-Day Avg Return
72.9%
90-Day Win Rate
78.6%
180-Day Win Rate
92.9%

Bullish Confluence Signal & Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin Price
Positive Signal (Green)
Negative Signal (Red)
90-Day Forward Period
180-Day Forward Period

Understanding the Bullish Confluence Signal Chart

This chart displays Bitcoin price alongside bullish confluence signal activations. Each signal point is color-coded based on its forward performance, with shaded areas showing the 90-day and 180-day forward return periods.

  • Green Signal Points: Signals that generated positive returns over the measured period
  • Red Signal Points: Signals that generated negative returns (rare but important for context)
  • Signal Timing: All signals are historically tested with actual forward performance data
  • Forward Periods: Shaded areas show the 90-day (light green) and 180-day (light blue) periods following each signal

The signal has generated an average 90-day return of 27.4% and 180-day return of 72.9% across 14 completed signals.

Signal Component Analysis

Selected Metric (Default: Put/Call Ratio)
Bitcoin Price
Signal Points (Vertical Lines)
Target Threshold Line

Understanding the Signal Components

The bullish confluence signal combines three key metrics. This chart shows the actual values (not percentiles) for better understanding of market conditions:

  • IV Percentile < 30th percentile: Low volatility environment indicates market complacency and often precedes major moves
  • Put/Call Ratio < 30th percentile: Low fear levels suggest reduced protective positioning and bullish sentiment
  • Volume Percentile > 70th percentile: High activity confirms significant market participation and conviction

The signal requires all three conditions to be met simultaneously for maximum effectiveness. This combination identifies periods of low volatility, low fear, and high activity - historically optimal conditions for Bitcoin uptrends.

Comprehensive Guide to Bullish Confluence Signal Analysis

What is the Bullish Confluence Signal?

The Bullish Confluence Signal identifies optimal Bitcoin entry points by combining three historically proven options market indicators using percentile ranking. This approach ensures consistent signal generation regardless of changing market conditions, as each metric is evaluated relative to its own historical distribution rather than fixed thresholds.

Signal Construction Methodology

Each component is ranked as a percentile against its historical distribution, providing consistent context regardless of absolute values:

  1. Implied Volatility Percentile < 30th: Current volatility is lower than 70% of historical observations
  2. Put/Call Ratio Percentile < 30th: Current fear levels are lower than 70% of historical observations
  3. Volume Percentile > 70th: Current volume is higher than 70% of historical observations

Why This Combination Works

Low IV + Low Put/Call + High Volume = Bullish Setup

This combination indicates: (1) Market complacency with IV below the 30th percentile creating opportunity, (2) Reduced fear with put/call ratio below the 30th percentile showing minimal protective positioning, (3) High conviction from volume above the 70th percentile confirming significant market participation. Historically, this confluence has preceded major uptrends in Bitcoin.

Practical Applications

For Long-Term Investors

Use signal activations as primary entry points for building Bitcoin positions. The 72.9% average 180-day return suggests strong medium-term performance following signals.

For Active Traders

Combine with technical analysis for timing precision. The signal provides fundamental options market context while charts provide entry/exit execution guidance.

For Options Traders

Signal activations often mark optimal times for long-dated call strategies or protective put sales, taking advantage of the low IV environment while positioning for the anticipated uptrend.

Key Performance Insights

Based on 14 completed signals: Average 90-day return of 27.4% with 78.6% win rate, and 180-day return of 72.9% with 92.9% win rate. The signal's strength lies in its risk-adjusted returns and timing precision.

Important Considerations